Options and Obstacles: Israel and Iran 2012

Israeli F-16 Fighter Jet preparing to refuel during long distance training maneuvers

Options and Obstacles: Israel and Iran 2012

Tensions over the possibility of military strikes between Iran and Israel have increased as each side seeks to  court the Atomic Energy Commission as well the United Nations. Americans have put the pressure on world leaders to deter any sort of nuclear development on the part of Iran, and with the rhetoric coming from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Israeli leaders have no other choice but to consider all the options.

Israel, a longtime receiver of terrorist assaults, has seen this type of activity from Arab countries in recent years and has reacted with covert offensive strikes to prevent the kind of destruction the Iranians talk so freely about. An example of this swift, corrective assault was seen in 2007 when Israel took out Syria’s nuclear power plant, which had just begun operations. Prior to this, a successful bombing of the Iraqi nuclear facility Osirak in 1981 proved that the possibility of eliminating a threat before it becomes one is always an option.

In the article from the Jerusalem Post, author Herb Keinon reports on the discussion given by newly appointed U.S. Ambassador Dan Shapiro to the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem. It identifies the alliance between Israel and the U.S. and makes it clear that "any and all options are on the table." Shapiro emphasized that the use of Israeli intelligence forces on the ground are key to the American support and planning for how to handle the Iranian nuclear development.

Keinon does not got give any details on Israeli aggression toward Arab nuclear facilities and reveals nothing more than simple bureaucratic statements made by Ambassador Shapiro such as secret meetings being scheduled between world leaders. Keinon identifies but does not elaborate on Shapiro's reinstatement of Hamas as a terrorist organization. He makes a brief reference to Shapiro's reflection on his involvement and success of Iron Dome, the Israeli anti-missile defense system, which reveals that the Israelis are preparing for return fire, but overall, the author reports only the basic topics addressed at the Conference.

In terms of reliability, this article lacks resource and historical reference on the issues of nuclear development within the Arab world.  It does not reference the previous Arab-Israeli conflict with regards to nuclear facilities, sure to be a critical issue in Shapiro's new post.  The American Ambassador may have touched on this during the conference, but from this report, determining this is futile. American relations, which are critical to this dispute with Iran are only lightly described. 

In contrast to this article, Gaverial Queenan's report on the same conference uses a brief but informative historical narrative, giving the reader a better understanding of the Atomic Commission's interests as well as U.S-Israeli commitment. Queenan also gives the reader an indication of the disdain between Israel and the U.S. regarding the assassinations of the two Iranian nuclear scientists. This is crucial. Not only does it show American caution, but it also keeps Israel honest.
 
Unfortunately, neither article provides an in-depth breakdown of nuclear relations between Israel and the Arab world. A previous history of Israeli offensives on Arab nuclear facilities is essential to understanding the tension between Iran and Israel.

Syrian Nuclear Reactor

September 2007 – (Operation Orchard) Modeled after Korean nuclear facilities, satellite images taken by IDF officials located a nuclear reactor under construction in the AL-Kibar region of Syria just north of the Euphrates River. After bugging the laptop of a top Syrian official and the consultation of a defected Iranian scientists, Israeli officials acquired enough evidence implying Syria had other plans for its atomic resources. Used for the enrichment of uranium through centrifuges, the facility was apparently the next step before acquiring enough enriched uranium to build and test a nuclear weapon. Although not complete, satellite images and ground photography proved that the location was dedicated to uranium enrichment. On September 6, 2007 Israeli war planes flew over the facility and eliminated the operation. 

This map shows the location of Al-Kibar

Iraqi Nuclear Reactor

Osirak reactor before Israeli offensive

June 1981 – Operation Opera  – Purchased by the Iraqi’s from the French, the Osirak reactor was intended for peaceful use but suspicion grew on the part of the Israeli’s that its intended use was for military strikes on Israel.  Infiltration of the French support facility by Israeli intelligence resulted in the interception and destruction of the reactor’s first set of core structures before ever getting to Iraq.  Israel, so convinced of the reactor’s intent, built a model of the reactor for strategic military training purposes. Israel made significant advances in the gathering of intelligence on the ground after Iraq had made it's intentions for Israel clear. Osirak was said to be at least ten years away from production.

The assassinations of both Iranian scientists in the last year had many of the same markings used in the Egyptian scientist El-Mashad hit from 1982. This indicates that Israeli intelligence is still entrenched and probably  more aware of Iranian nuclear movement than any other country, apart from Iran itself.More info

If options for a strike have been seeded, the obstacles are inescapable for Israel. Strategic military factors play a gigantic role. Iran is much farther away than both Syria and Iraq.With Israel stretching their arm across Arab airspace, it presents a logistical nightmare, and requires precise coordination. Even with Iraq neutralized, The numbers and challenges that go with a military strike are exhausting considering the distance and maneuvers necessary to reach the region. It guarantees mid-air refueling and ensures vulnerability.

As we can see, the previous attacks and current initiatives by Israeli forces contributes to the pressure in regards to the use of nuclear energy on the part of Iran. Even though this aggression is spurred on by continual Iranian rhetoric, these factors must not be overlooked when focusing on the determination of Iran to keep enriching uranium. With the Arab League demonstrating unification in the past in regards to the elimination of Israel, and the Jewish population at an all time high, it is important for Israel to keep as many options on the table as possible. Even more critical, much of the Iranian population is in favor of nuclear development.

Pipeline Explosions Consistent Through 2012

Explosion Hits Egyptian Gas Pipeline to Israel

Pipeline explosions have raised a few eyebrows in the Middle East as of late. Numerous explosions have caused a delay in the transfer of much needed gas and the effects have put Israeli and Egyptian pipeline security forces on high alert. 

The pipeline, which runs directly through the Sinai desert, transfers gas to Israel as well as Jordan. It also carries a political edge and has sparked animosity with some Egyptian officials who feel that Israel doesn’t pay enough for it. Tensions have grown fierce along the pipeline routes and fingers are consistently pointed in both directions.

In the article from the Jerusalem Post, the author gives a brief account of the explosive activity  within Egyptian borders.  There is not much detail apart from the issue of recurrence, and the emphasis of Bedouin patrols hired by the Egyptian government.  The author keeps his account short and to the point, and limits the amount of detail apart from the pipeline being run by Gasco, a subsidiary of EGAS.

Even though the article states that Egyptian officials will be arming the pipeline with a remote alarm system and beefing up security with Bedouin forces, it neglects to inform the reader where exactly this pipeline runs and also whether or not a suspect has ever been apprehended.

With further research, one can assess there is more information to be had on the subjects of who, where, when and why.  

First, The Who: EGAS which began in 2001 is the state owned licensee and distributor of natural gas within Egypt and is responsible for making sure new projects are completed and communities are better supplied with the appropriate amounts of gas. EGAS is run by Gasco which is responsible for refining the gasoline and making sure it gets to the proper distributions sites. 40% of all Israeli power consumption comes from natural gas and that number jumps to 80% when referring to Jordan.

The Where: The Sinai, located in the north of Egypt, has long been considered a place of turmoil for both neglected Bedouin populations and attacks on Israelis. It runs along the southern Israeli border and shares that division with northern Egypt.  The pipeline V’s off from the Sinai and heads north, sending one arm of petrol into Jerusalem, and the other arm along Israel’s eastern border into Jordan, clear up through Amman. Al-Arish, the largest Egyptian town on the Mediterranean, is just a few miles down from Al-Massaeed where the blast took place.

The When:  There have been a reported 12 attacks. This is the first attack on the pipeline for 2012. Eleven previous attacks occurred in 2011. Security forces within the Egyptian interior are spotty at best, and the pipeline is not wholly protected until it reaches the Israeli border. Prior to the current issues that have arisen in Iran, Israelis were paying $4 for a gallon of gas. That number has now risen to $9. Jordan,  has also seen its gas prices double since October 2011.

Finally, The Why:  Reports say the attack occurred after an Islamic Leader died in a Cairo prison. The crumbling Egyptian regime that saw the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak has had poor security response issues because of a reduction in its security force. This, along with high tensions over the agreement previously made with Israel, regarding the amount Egypt charges them for natural gas, have delayed a swift resolution. The agreement, signed in 2008 is supposed to allow Israel to purchase gas at a very decent price through the year 2023. New government policies and officials have recently been trying to amend these agreements to keep the gas flowing.

Egypt, who employs heavily armed Bedouin tribes to secure the pipeline has also experienced heightened conflict along that border in the past with smuggling of arms and attacks against Israel, which have made negotiations more difficult. 

 No suspects have been apprehended at this time but the potential damage to Israeli infrastructure and its partner Jordan, are the most concerning for both countries. Gas delays in both nations can sometimes go weeks without any solutions. 

Overall, the issue of Pipeline attacks and written correspondence requires the reporter to view many sources in order to relay the correct facts.  Being that the attacks are generally within the Egyptian boarders, it is critical to make proper assessments on the causes and effects of such explosions before the transmission of any information has occurred. Both political and national concerns play a heavy roll in the flow of natural gas from the Sinai. More information can be found in the Egypt Independent.